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As El Niño grows stronger, so does hope for a wet winter...

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 Author Topic: As El Niño grows stronger, so does hope for a wet winter...
KathyW


Joined: 25 Jun 2003
Posts: 1341

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PostPosted: Sat Nov 07, 2009 12:12 am GMT  Quote
 
http://www.cfbf.com/agalert/AgAlertStory.cfm?ID=1425&ck=A424ED4BD3A7D6AEA720B86D4A360F75
Luciano136


Joined: 19 Jan 2006
Posts: 3028

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PostPosted: Sat Nov 07, 2009 12:18 am GMT  Quote
 
A dry fall sometimes gets followed by a wetter winter, so who knows.

As usual though, I'll believe it when I see it Smile
The Chief


Joined: 08 Mar 2006
Posts: 11680

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PostPosted: Sat Nov 07, 2009 1:41 am GMT  Quote
 
Be careful what ya'll wish for.

With all the fire activity of the past two years down in So Cal, ya'll will beg & really plead that El Nino never came.
Luciano136


Joined: 19 Jan 2006
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PostPosted: Sat Nov 07, 2009 1:44 am GMT  Quote
 
The Chief wrote:
Be careful what ya'll wish for.

With all the fire activity of the past two years down in So Cal, ya'll will beg & really plead that El Nino never came.


No hills in my neck of the woods LOL

As I repeated many times, you live in the hills in Socal and you will slide or burn eventually. This year it might be both Shocked
MCGusto


Joined: 29 Mar 2005
Posts: 258

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PostPosted: Sat Nov 07, 2009 2:15 am GMT  Quote
 
The Chief wrote:
Be careful what ya'll wish for.

With all the fire activity of the past two years down in So Cal, ya'll will beg & really plead that El Nino never came.


No worries. I've got some pretty good rain jackets and a sweet pair of gators. Wink

Besides, what would wilderness be without a little "wild"? Heck, I've even been thinking about starting a new sport: Mud Surfing. Simply wait until the rains come, grab your nearest boogie board or surfboard (sans skeg), and try your luck at the nearest mudslide. There should be plenty of slopes to choose from, and depending on the severity of everything, we might even get some good "mud waves" coming through the flood channels.

Cool

Seriously, though, a wet winter would be a good thing for the reservoirs. And that's NO JOKE.

Gusto
TacoDelRio


Joined: 18 Dec 2005
Posts: 530

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PostPosted: Sat Nov 07, 2009 2:23 am GMT  Quote
 
Last year my buddy and I started using mud pickets as pro on alpine climbs when weather turned crappy (crappy in the sunny sense).
tiogap


Joined: 05 Jul 2001
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PostPosted: Sat Nov 07, 2009 6:25 am GMT  Quote
 
not sure if we will get a wet winter. back in 2004/05(when we got 30+" of rain), the storms started in October, and kept going.
KathyW


Joined: 25 Jun 2003
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PostPosted: Sat Nov 07, 2009 12:50 pm GMT  Quote
 
I suppose an average winter would feel like a wet winter at this point.
The Chief


Joined: 08 Mar 2006
Posts: 11680

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PostPosted: Sat Nov 07, 2009 3:05 pm GMT  Quote
 
tiogap wrote:
not sure if we will get a wet winter. back in 2004/05(when we got 30+" of rain), the storms started in October, and kept going.


2005/06 we didn't get a lick of snow till New Years Eve.

It didn't stop till the end of April and it was the record setter.... 678"!

wingding wrote:
I suppose an average winter would feel like a wet winter at this point.


Once again...

All you SOCALer need to remember that you live in a dry desert environment. That is one of the primary reasons that the Spanish Settler's continued north up the coast. There wasn't any consistent water to be had south of Santa Barbara.
jrbouldin


Joined: 21 Jan 2007
Posts: 726

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PostPosted: Mon Nov 09, 2009 2:33 am GMT  Quote
 
For the last few months, the various indices have been tracking at the low end of predictions, so they had, last month, downgraded the forecast to "moderate" for the coming winter. However, I think that the more recent measurements push it back up higher.

The definitive site for El Nino forecasts:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf

p.s: 2 month lead, 3 month precip forecast, as of Oct 15:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead02/off02_prcp.gif
butitsadryheat


Joined: 30 Dec 2005
Posts: 6860

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PostPosted: Mon Nov 09, 2009 4:16 am GMT  Quote
 
jrbouldin wrote:


The definitive site for El Nino forecasts:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf


Just as Chief predicted about a month ago. It may last a pretty long while.
Kerstin


Joined: 16 Aug 2005
Posts: 257

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PostPosted: Tue Nov 10, 2009 2:20 am GMT  Quote
 
MCGusto wrote:
The Chief wrote:
Be careful what ya'll wish for.

With all the fire activity of the past two years down in So Cal, ya'll will beg & really plead that El Nino never came.


No worries. I've got some pretty good rain jackets and a sweet pair of gators. Wink

Besides, what would wilderness be without a little "wild"? Heck, I've even been thinking about starting a new sport: Mud Surfing. Simply wait until the rains come, grab your nearest boogie board or surfboard (sans skeg), and try your luck at the nearest mudslide. There should be plenty of slopes to choose from, and depending on the severity of everything, we might even get some good "mud waves" coming through the flood channels.

Cool

Seriously, though, a wet winter would be a good thing for the reservoirs. And that's NO JOKE.

Gusto


You just triggered a memory with your mention of mud surfing. One winter in the 1970s there was a flood where I lived in the Santa Monica mountains. Me and my brother went out in it. We found the abandoned Pomegranate orchard we usually played in flooded in several feet of water. I remember swimming in rapidly-moving, aromatic, muddy water full of shrubs, sticks and other debris. We were excellent swimmers, accustomed to dealing with rough water in the ocean, but so many things could have gone wrong. I'm amazed we didn't drown.

I remember the 1998 El Nino when I lived in Santa Cruz. It was completely dry and fairly warm until New Year's Day of 1998. Then it rained for months without stopping.
MoapaPk


Joined: 13 May 2005
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 10, 2009 5:24 pm GMT  Quote
 
wingding wrote:
I suppose an average winter would feel like a wet winter at this point.


And how. All the tinajas on Bridge Mt are empty; that's not normal for this time of year. Vegas is at about 30-40% of the normal rainfall (which isn't much anyway).
jhodlof


Joined: 26 Apr 2008
Posts: 1063

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PostPosted: Tue Nov 10, 2009 7:42 pm GMT  Quote
 
MoapaPk wrote:
wingding wrote:
I suppose an average winter would feel like a wet winter at this point.


And how. All the tinajas on Bridge Mt are empty; that's not normal for this time of year. Vegas is at about 30-40% of the normal rainfall (which isn't much anyway).


Yeah, I'm wondering when we will start to see some moisture in AZ. It was a really dry summer and its been a dry year. There is all this talk of an El Nino and water falling from the sky, but it has yet to happen. Funny thing, the NWS gets all excited about an El Nino, but they themselves state, in the Flagstaff discussion about El Ninos, that an El Nino has a 50/50 chance of being wetter or drier than normal. The last one was really dry, the one before that really wet. It makes no sense. Why get so excited about something which has a 50/50 chance?
Luciano136


Joined: 19 Jan 2006
Posts: 3028

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PostPosted: Tue Nov 10, 2009 8:14 pm GMT  Quote
 
jhodlof wrote:
MoapaPk wrote:
wingding wrote:
I suppose an average winter would feel like a wet winter at this point.


And how. All the tinajas on Bridge Mt are empty; that's not normal for this time of year. Vegas is at about 30-40% of the normal rainfall (which isn't much anyway).


Yeah, I'm wondering when we will start to see some moisture in AZ. It was a really dry summer and its been a dry year. There is all this talk of an El Nino and water falling from the sky, but it has yet to happen. Funny thing, the NWS gets all excited about an El Nino, but they themselves state, in the Flagstaff discussion about El Ninos, that an El Nino has a 50/50 chance of being wetter or drier than normal. The last one was really dry, the one before that really wet. It makes no sense. Why get so excited about something which has a 50/50 chance?


We live in a desert environment and I think, if anything, it will only get drier unfortunately.
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