jhodlof wrote:There is all this talk of an El Nino and water falling from the sky, but it has yet to happen. Funny thing, the NWS gets all excited about an El Nino, but they themselves state, in the Flagstaff discussion about El Ninos, that an El Nino has a 50/50 chance of being wetter or drier than normal. The last one was really dry, the one before that really wet. It makes no sense. Why get so excited about something which has a 50/50 chance?
Got a link for that? I'm guessing it's because they set the mean to zero but hard to tell based on what you've said.