jhodlof wrote:There is all this talk of an El Nino and water falling from the sky, but it has yet to happen. Funny thing, the NWS gets all excited about an El Nino, but they themselves state, in the Flagstaff discussion about El Ninos, that an El Nino has a 50/50 chance of being wetter or drier than normal. The last one was really dry, the one before that really wet. It makes no sense. Why get so excited about something which has a 50/50 chance?

Got a link for that? I'm guessing it's because they set the mean to zero but hard to tell based on what you've said.

jrbouldin wrote:

jhodlof wrote:There is all this talk of an El Nino and water falling from the sky, but it has yet to happen. Funny thing, the NWS gets all excited about an El Nino, but they themselves state, in the Flagstaff discussion about El Ninos, that an El Nino has a 50/50 chance of being wetter or drier than normal. The last one was really dry, the one before that really wet. It makes no sense. Why get so excited about something which has a 50/50 chance?

Got a link for that? I'm guessing it's because they set the mean to zero but hard to tell based on what you've said.

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz/Weather_Gra ... layer.html


I guess you'd have to change precipitation to snow fall. I watched that a long time ago and had forgotten it. I want a wet winter, but I'll believe it when I see it.

Interesting note, this is the driest year to date in Flagstaff.
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz/News/Oct09review.pdf

see the bottom

jhodlof wrote:

jrbouldin wrote:

jhodlof wrote:There is all this talk of an El Nino and water falling from the sky, but it has yet to happen. Funny thing, the NWS gets all excited about an El Nino, but they themselves state, in the Flagstaff discussion about El Ninos, that an El Nino has a 50/50 chance of being wetter or drier than normal. The last one was really dry, the one before that really wet. It makes no sense. Why get so excited about something which has a 50/50 chance?

Got a link for that? I'm guessing it's because they set the mean to zero but hard to tell based on what you've said.

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz/Weather_Gra ... layer.html


I guess you'd have to change precipitation to snow fall. I watched that a long time ago and had forgotten it. I want a wet winter, but I'll believe it when I see it.

Interesting note, this is the driest year to date in Flagstaff.
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz/News/Oct09review.pdf

see the bottom

Nope you've got it wrong. Listen to it again, carefully. Especially #s 10-15.

I did, that is why I wrote to change it to snow from precip. I remembered it wrong.

jhodlof wrote:I did, that is why I wrote to change it to snow from precip. I remembered it wrong.

Even if you consider just snow in Flagstaff, they still make the point that when the Ninos are high, snow is well above average, and the current forecast is for, at the least, a moderate Nino (and the recent big jump in SSTs in the last 3 weeks is pushing that towards 'major'). And also this considers Flagstaff only and does not factor in the higher elevations, where the snow/rain ratio is higher. You're in for snow this year.

jrbouldin wrote:

jhodlof wrote:I did, that is why I wrote to change it to snow from precip. I remembered it wrong.

You're in for snow this year.

I hope you're right.

We could use some snow in the Big AZ.

The last time I wandered out among the Verde River, the cottonwoods were so dry that
a beaver developed a nasty toothache.

I say that it all begins in the next 3 weeks or so.

Be warned, when it starts, ya'll are gonna wish that it never started cus it aint gonna stop for a long ass time...mark my words.

The Chief wrote:I say that it all begins in the next 3 weeks or so.

Be warned, when it starts, ya'll are gonna wish that it never started cus it aint gonna stop for a long ass time...mark my words.

I know this is from a state on the eastern seaboard, but the two winters referenced, 2002-2003 and 2006-2007, were very dry here in Arizona. I also don't know how they were for CA, but if this forecast is for conditions that gave us the dry winters referenced, it is not good for us. Especially since we are in a severe drought here. Flagstaff is on track to record it's driest ever year on record since 1899, and a dry winter would be extremely bad for us. Not that California could benefit from a dry winter.

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/reports/ana ... o2010.html

http://www.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=fgz
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/wrh/techMemos/273.pdf

Flagstaff is currently sitting at 8.56 inches of precipitation for the year, the current record of 9.9 inches from 1942 is the driest year on record. Since we need 1.34 inches to tie that, it is very possible that this year is going to be the new driest year on record. It would require a massive amount of precipitation before 12/31 to not have us in the top 5. This was not only due a failed monsoon, but to dry conditions during the entire year. Only one period, late May, saw abundant moisture, 2.08", and interestingly that fell during what is typically the driest time of year and gave us our 5th wettest May on record.

jhodlof wrote:I know this is from a state on the eastern seaboard, but the two winters referenced, 2002-2003 and 2006-2007, were very dry here in Arizona. I also don't know how they were for CA, but if this forecast is for conditions that gave us the dry winters referenced, it is not good for us. Especially since we are in a severe drought here. Flagstaff is on track to record it's driest ever year on record since 1899, and a dry winter would be extremely bad for us. Not that California could benefit from a dry winter.

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/reports/ana ... o2010.html

http://www.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=fgz
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/wrh/techMemos/273.pdf

Flagstaff is currently sitting at 8.56 inches of precipitation for the year, the current record of 9.9 inches from 1942 is the driest year on record. Since we need 1.34 inches to tie that, it is very possible that this year is going to be the new driest year on record. It would require a massive amount of precipitation before 12/31 to not have us in the top 5. This was not only due a failed monsoon, but to dry conditions during the entire year. Only one period, late May, saw abundant moisture, 2.08", and interestingly that fell during what is typically the driest time of year and gave us our 5th wettest May on record.

Dude,

Have you ever read Cadillac Desert? There are some interesting things in there about Arizona and water. You should check it out. I can't remember all the details off-hand, but I can remember thinking... Arizona, WTF?




Gusto

All I know is that it's been drier than dry so far!! If this is supposed to be a wet winter like 04-05, it better starting raining tomorrow

From the NWS:

Since October 13 when a very strong storm affected northern and central California, drier than normal conditions have prevailed across the state. At the beginning of the outlook period, moist onshore winds should bring several inches of precipitation to northern California. By the end of November, enhanced rainfall associated with a MJO event is expected to become established across the western pacific. This MJO activity may affect the circulation pattern across the north Pacific and contribute to wet conditions along the West Coast. Later in the winter, the storm track is expected to gradually shift south along the West Coast. El Niño composites along with the CPC seasonal outlook favor above-median precipitation during December – February. Therefore, improvement is forecast in California.

Forecast confidence for California is high.

It still looks like it'll be better than the last couple of years.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/seasonal_drought.html

Every El Nino event starts in late Dec and doesn't stop till late March through April.

Patience.

jhodlof wrote:Only one period, late May, saw abundant moisture, 2.08", and interestingly that fell during what is typically the driest time of year and gave us our 5th wettest May on record.

That was likely a strong El Nino onset signal.

It's supposed to be a wet winter, right? Well, it is still fall, after all...

No year will be like year "19--". Try not to think of the atmosphere as a repeating structure in that sense. Van den Dool (1994) estimates that it would take 10^30 years to find an analogous period in the Northern Hemisphere of 500mb heights given our current observational error. Also see Lorenz (1969) for similar conclusions. You can observe and try to explain trends, but it is best to do so using physical understanding rather than statistics. Ramage (1983) has a great paper on this called "Teleconnections and the Siege of Time".

All that said, burn your old skis and pray to Ullr!!!!