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Beautiful SHASTA Current Conditions

Regional discussion and conditions reports for the Golden State. Please post partners requests and trip plans in the California Climbing Partners forum.
 

Re: Beautiful SHASTA Current Conditions

Postby Bubba Suess » Sat Jan 25, 2014 3:52 pm

I think it is premature to ask this question. Things are certainly not looking good right now but we still have 2.5 months of winter left and there is the very real possibility that we could have some epic storms between now and May. Anecdotally, the winter of 2010-2011 was like this one. We had one good snowfall around Thanksgiving and then nothing in December and nothing in January (we have actually had more precipitation in Jan2014 than we did in Jan2011). Temps were high too. The only reason people weren't stressing was that the previous winter had been above average and there was a lot of water in the reservoirs. Then came February which had an average snowfall. March brought record storms (I had 9 feet in 4 days at my house). That winter ended up being above average in terms of snowfall despite those two dry months. Obviously I am not saying this pattern will repeat but just that there is still a lot of winter left and it is too early to predict conditions on the mountain right now.

Just my two cents...
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Re: Beautiful SHASTA Current Conditions

Postby mrchad9 » Sat Jan 25, 2014 7:39 pm

yosemiteforlife67 wrote:Hey mrchad9, i love the pics and report. I am planning on attempting Shasta for the first time in June. I was planning on taking one of the "easier" routes (clear creek).....but depending on conditions in the next few months, I am not sure how much snow may be up there. What are the chances of any substantial amounts of snow on the east side by then?? I was also possibly looking at the west face gully. What do you think , as far as routes for a first time shasta climber? I have done mt whitney , half dome, and some local peaks (lake tahoe) like Pyramid, freel and tallac. I mainly hike as opposed to climb though.

Bubba is correct. I'll also add...

Clear Creek generally melts out early, but way too soon to tell if it'd melt out before June. Still... I've done is snow free and it's a fine route even if there is no snow... just gotta follow the correct use trails and not get on the lose descent one.

West face is a fine route, nice 4000 foot glissando. As it gets into April the website will have good updates on its conditions posted by the rangers. Most of it holds snow and it should be good in June except perhaps the top 50-100 feet which melts and can be very loose scree.

Hotlum Bolum ridge is fine if not icy. Generally Hotlum Winun ridge is a good one too, and you can camp by the icefall near the Hotlum glacier.
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Re: Beautiful SHASTA Current Conditions

Postby yosemiteforlife67 » Sun Jan 26, 2014 3:36 pm

Hey thanks for the information. We'll see what we get in the next few months. I wasn't sure how bad that clear creek route really could be without snow but i'm all up for going up that route without snow if needed.
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Re: Beautiful SHASTA Current Conditions

Postby mrchad9 » Mon Jan 27, 2014 12:25 am

See this post for pics of Clear Creek when snow free...

beautiful-shasta-current-conditions-t65450-15.html#p937106
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Re: Beautiful SHASTA Current Conditions

Postby Bubba Suess » Mon Jan 27, 2014 2:56 am

It looks like things are starting to stir:

NOAA Forecast

Weather.com

I reckon the dam is going to burst.
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Shasta Conditions

Postby clmbr » Fri Jan 31, 2014 6:00 pm

Jarpup wrote:. . .
Given how bad Shasta looks right now...

A friend of mine attempted Shasta yesterday; he had a very exciting time. It all depends what you are looking for...
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Re: Southern Sierra Conditions

Postby Jarpup » Fri Jan 31, 2014 6:05 pm

I'll likely give Shasta a go, but prefer to descend with no (new) holes in me...

clmbr wrote:
Jarpup wrote:. . .
Given how bad Shasta looks right now...

A friend of mine attempted Shasta yesterday; he had a very exciting time. It all depends what you are looking for...
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Re: Southern Sierra Conditions

Postby clmbr » Sat Feb 01, 2014 11:50 pm

Jarpup wrote:I'll likely give Shasta a go, but prefer to descend with no (new) holes in me...

clmbr wrote:
Jarpup wrote:. . .
Given how bad Shasta looks right now...

A friend of mine attempted Shasta yesterday; he had a very exciting time. It all depends what you are looking for...


That's a correct answer. :D :D :D
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Re: Beautiful SHASTA Current Conditions

Postby Alpinist » Sun Feb 02, 2014 7:28 pm

Bubba - did you get any snow this week? I was planning to climb Mt Shasta in May but I think we're going to head further north now. I know winter is only half over but it doesn't look very promising there for a snow climb.
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Re: Beautiful SHASTA Current Conditions

Postby SeanReedy » Sun Feb 02, 2014 9:28 pm

Alpinist wrote:... did you get any snow this week? I was planning to climb Mt Shasta in May but I think we're going to head further north now. I know winter is only half over but it doesn't look very promising there for a snow climb.


If I were traveling from afar, attempting to make long-term plans, I'd probably follow those instincts. Personally, when looking at trips in California over the next few months, I'm looking at the silver lining of taking advantage of rare winter and spring conditions.

From webcams and from the report below, it looks like there was only a dusting of snow on Shasta (the Sierra and coast had more):
http://shastaavalanche.org/

Beyond 3-5 days, we know things can change, but it looks like there will likely be decent snowfall next weekend:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/index.php

Then, there may be another dry spell:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php

The (much less reliable) long term outlook for California suggests a good chance of continuing below normal precipitation and above normal temperatures all the way through winter and spring. If a more typical pattern ends up developing, the Northstate generally has a better shot at substantial spring precipitation than points south. We'll see.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/multi_season/13_seasonal_outlooks/color/churchill.php

All that being said, images and detailed condition reports from Bubba, mrchad, climbr, and others, are more fun to look at and may give clues as to what is likely on specific Shasta routes.
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Re: Beautiful SHASTA Current Conditions

Postby mrchad9 » Mon Feb 03, 2014 6:10 pm

I can't imagine that the gullies and gulches on Shasta wouldn't have nice snow in May, but who knows. The ridges though may be a lost cause.

SeanReedy wrote:All that being said, images and detailed condition reports from Bubba, mrchad, climbr, and others, are more fun to look at and may give clues as to what is likely on specific Shasta routes.

: - )
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Re: Beautiful SHASTA Current Conditions

Postby SeanReedy » Wed Feb 05, 2014 7:43 am

Bubba Suess wrote:It looks like things are starting to stir...

I reckon the dam is going to burst.


The patterns and models are still kind of funky, but substantial snow followed by ongoing unsettled weather is looking more and more likely in Northern California. Good luck!
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Re: Beautiful SHASTA Current Conditions

Postby Bubba Suess » Wed Feb 05, 2014 3:35 pm

Alpinist wrote:Bubba - did you get any snow this week? I was planning to climb Mt Shasta in May but I think we're going to head further north now. I know winter is only half over but it doesn't look very promising there for a snow climb.


We didn't get any snow down at the foot of the mountain but Shasta now has some snow above 9,500 or so. Not too much but enough to at least make it look white. That is pretty good these days. We are fixin to have a storm come through this weekend though. As Sean Reedy says, we'll see what happens after that.
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Re: Beautiful SHASTA Current Conditions

Postby Jarpup » Wed Feb 05, 2014 8:37 pm

Looks like some solid precipitation on the way this weekend. Fingers crossed... Plane tickets purchased and car rented.
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