by asmrz » Mon Mar 04, 2013 12:48 am
For Jareds and the rest of us thinking about Sierra spring skiing:
The following might be a confirmation that the backcountry skiing season is and will be extremely short this year. Just FYI.
BTW Deb, thanks for the PM.
Written by Dennis on March 2, 2013. Posted in Forecasts
Forecast: Owens Valley, Mammoth and Mono County
By: Dennis Mattinson, Weather & Atmospheric Forecaster
SierraWave Media: Radio – TV – Online News
SAT MAR 02 2013
Here we are in 02-March-2013 and January / February 2013 has been the driest in California since 1920. I’ve been saying in my commentary for a few weeks now that we are in real trouble water wise this winter. No matter what happens storm wise this winter, theres no way we can make up for the Jan/ Feb precipitation deficiency. According to Ken Clark, Western US forecaster for AccuWeather, “The season started out like gang busters back in December. Storms brought well above normal rain and snow with the Sierra snow pack 200% of normal at one point. But the calendar turned from 2012 to 2013 and the atmosphere turned off the spigot. The snow pack is now only 60 to 70 percent of normal and dropping. January and February will end up being the driest on record for the northern Sierra. Only 2.2 inches of water has fallen and normal is 17. 1 inches.”
So on to the forecast. After a few days of well above normal temperatures, we will eventually get a cool down starting on Sunday, but really below normal by Wednesday thru Friday, as a couple of systems affect the area. Sunday looks like most of the moisture remains from Yosemite north, so a chance of showers in Mono County. Late Tuesday into Wednesday a colder and wetter storm moves thru. Here there is a better chance at area wide precipitation, with additional disturbances keeping the area unsettled thru Friday. This storm scenario looks all too familiar, namely cold temperatures and too little water. The other thing thats familiar with the Wednesday system is the winds, potential for downslope winds that is. Right now, High Resolution 9-km ARW model shows 50 KT+ winds off the Eastern Sierra into the Owens Valley, lets hope not.
Dennis