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Risk profiling - 8,000ers

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Risk profiling - 8,000ers

Postby sanders » Mon Mar 04, 2013 5:37 pm

Was doing risk profiling of normal routes of some 8,000ers during popular seasons: Nanga Parbat, Kinshofer (Summer) and Shishapangma, North Ridge (Spring) (please see attached)... Does anybody know where to get the consolidated 2010, 2011 and 2012 data to complement these studies?... I used http://www.8000ers.com but Jurgalski has data only till Dec 2009...
Attachments
nanga_parbat_fatality_rates_kinshofer_route__june_july_1982_2012_v.3.jpg
Updated - Nanga Parbat - Fatality Trends - Kinshofer - Summer
nanga_parbat_fatality_rates_kinshofer_route__june_july_1982_2012_v.3.jpg (111.47 KiB) Viewed 2408 times
shishapangma_fatality_rates_northern_route_may_1987_2007.jpg
Shisha Pangma - Fatality Trends - Northern Route - Spring
shishapangma_fatality_rates_northern_route_may_1987_2007.jpg (73.81 KiB) Viewed 2517 times
Last edited by sanders on Fri Mar 08, 2013 12:16 pm, edited 6 times in total.
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Re: Risk profiling - 8,000ers

Postby rgg » Tue Mar 05, 2013 9:45 am

Did you check the: Himalayan Database?

By the way, it's too early for those three exclamation marks. The number of summits is too small to state that the deviation from the 5.6% in the June-July period is statistically significant. That said, the 0% death rate in August is encouraging.

Cheers, Rob
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Re: Risk profiling - 8,000ers

Postby Bruno » Tue Mar 05, 2013 4:06 pm

rgg wrote:Did you check the: Himalayan Database?

The Himalayan Database is only compiling expeditions in the Nepalese Himalaya (incl. border peaks climbed from the other side). Jurgalski is certainly the most reliable source for Sishapangma and Nanga Parbat.

rgg wrote:By the way, it's too early for those three exclamation marks. The number of summits is too small to state that the deviation from the 5.6% in the June-July period is statistically significant.

+1
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Re: Risk profiling - 8,000ers

Postby sanders » Fri Mar 08, 2013 12:29 pm

Updated the Nanga Parbat stats with what I found on 2010-2012... Agree that the August sample is not big enough to make any conclusions yet... So far, on average, June looks safer for Nanga Parbat (if compared to July)... Interesting enough, last time in August the mountain was climbed was in 1998... Going through the Himalayan Database - confirmed, it's only Nepalese Himalaya...
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Re: Risk profiling - 8,000ers

Postby sanders » Sat Mar 09, 2013 1:55 pm

Does anybody have an authentication file from the Himalayan Database CD that comes with the Himalayan Database book?...

It turns out that one cannot read Hawley's updates without first pre-installing the Himal Win program requiring that key - http://bit.ly/16g6eyO and http://www.himalayandatabase.com/support.html ...

The book itself is very high-level, without any good granularity into what has been happening on specific Nepalese 8000ers nowadays...
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Re: Risk profiling - 8,000ers

Postby Bruno » Sun Mar 10, 2013 5:47 am

sanders wrote:Does anybody have an authentication file from the Himalayan Database CD that comes with the Himalayan Database book?...

It turns out that one cannot read Hawley's updates without first pre-installing the Himal Win program requiring that key - http://bit.ly/16g6eyO and http://www.himalayandatabase.com/support.html ...

The book itself is very high-level, without any good granularity into what has been happening on specific Nepalese 8000ers nowadays...

I bought the CD a few years ago, and regularly download the updates, never got any trouble doing it. I've just updated the autumn/winter 2011 files, it worked fine. The updates usually come one to one and half year later, after the research/verification process is completed.

At least in the version I have, you need to insert the original CD for authentification during updates. The system also sometimes asks you for an authentification code (usually a word randomly selected from the "user guide" coming with the CD). I guess you can't access the database without the original CD. What you get as free download from the website is just 0.01% of the information available in the database.The database has a detailed record of more than 7,000 expeditions. It contains a quite powerful analysis tool, and you can export the data into excel for further analysis. Might be really useful for the kind of research you are doing.
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Re: Risk profiling - 8,000ers

Postby sanders » Mon Mar 11, 2013 3:50 pm

Was finally able to read the database source files! The detail of those lists is just amazing... See what I have done for DHA1 and MANA...
Attachments
Dhaulagiri_I_North_East_Ridge_route_fatality_rates_Apr_Jun_Sep_Oct_1978_2011_NE_Ridge_only_new2.jpg
Dhaulagiri I North East Ridge route fatality rates April to June, September to October 1978 2011
Dhaulagiri_I_North_East_Ridge_route_fatality_rates_Apr_Jun_Sep_Oct_1978_2011_NE_Ridge_only_new2.jpg (435.18 KiB) Viewed 2229 times
Manaslu_NE_Face_route_fatality_rates_Apr_May_Sep_Oct_1971_2011_new3.jpg
Manaslu NE Face route fatality rates April to May, September to October 1971 2011
Manaslu_NE_Face_route_fatality_rates_Apr_May_Sep_Oct_1971_2011_new3.jpg (380.33 KiB) Viewed 2229 times
Last edited by sanders on Thu Mar 14, 2013 2:28 pm, edited 6 times in total.
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Re: Risk profiling - 8,000ers

Postby sanders » Tue Mar 12, 2013 1:08 pm

I have a dumb question - why the summits of GI, GII and BP are not so frequented in mid-end June? Jet winds, unstable snow?

Also, does anyone have a complete breakdown by name and summit date of all GII and BP summiteers?
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