Does anyone know what El Nino will do to climbing in South America in general as far as snowfall, temperatures, climbing conditions, etc.?

Obviously there will be vast differences in the effects depending on the region that you are referring to as South America is a vast and diverse continent. Information on specific regions (at least by country) would be the ideal. And info on the most interesting mountainous regions would be nice as well (i.e. Peru, Argentina, Ecuador, etc.).

Peru & Bolivia get more rain and snow - bad avalanches and flooding. Generally crap weather in the mountains. Not sure about Ecuador.

But the problem is not just El Nino. La Nina, which accompanies it - after it, usually - means unusually dry conditions. 1998 was a La Nina year in Peru/Bolivia and the moutains of Bolivia were badly stripped of snow and ice. Parinacota and Pomerape were completely bare like you would never have seen them in any photo - just scree. I was there next year and they were back to normal.

Last year the High Andes south of Aconcagua got a LOT of snow in the winter (June-Sept) but north of Aconcagua not so much. There was like a clear demarcation line near Mercedario. A colleague works ski patrol at Portillo and he said from up high you could almost see the line with your eyes.

Here in Australia it is reported that a mild El Nino is coming. For us that means hot and dry. It has already been a warm and dry winter here, though in New Zealand they have had a lot of snow in the ski resorts - not so much high up in the mountains.

D

What about the southern most tip of South America, specifially talking about Patagonia (Los Glaciares, Torre Del Pine)? My impression is tha the previous 2 seasons were prettry good by Patagonia standards. Any ideas if the demarcaltion line is also in effecft for this area and one may expect La Nino conditions?
-- Rinat

Not sure about the far south. I've been there every year for the last six years, before and after Antarctica. Generally in Punta Arenas the weather seems to be getting warmer and less windy. November last year was really unusually nice for weeks at a time. I think though that the Fitzroy area had pretty bad weather - as usual - and there was only one short break early in 2006.

D

We were in Fitzroy area in late October last year, and had great weather for 4 days.
However people had horrible rains the week before. There, I guess it's very unpredictable whatever the period you go.

I've found an interesting article on CNN :
http://edition.cnn.com/2006/WEATHER/09/13/weather.nino.reut/index.html
It seems that it's gonna be a mild El Niño this year.

And if you can read French :
http://www.meteo.org/phenomen/el-nino.htm

Thanks, guys. I cannot read French, but Google Translate surely can ...

Further information (in French) on Aviso website.
They mention 55-60% chance that El Niño occurs this year (late 2006 / early 2007).

Yes, it's definitely hitting Australia. We just had our warmest September on record. ie. ever since I wrote that first post and these first few days of October have been crazily hot and dry. They are saying it will only be a mild El Nino for Australia, but it is looking pretty bad so far.

D