SoCalHiker wrote:

mattnoland wrote:This is true, if you take into account that this "likelyhood" metric counts everyone in the world, whether they are, at a given moment, in grizzly habitats or no. Whatever statistics say about your chances of being attacked by a predatory animal, common sense says that these same chances increase exponentially when you enter their environment.

Surfers make the same glib argument about being attacked by sharks. "You are more likely to be hit by a car than attacked by a shark." Of course you are, but "likelyhood" statistics are not taking into account that people surfing off the California coast incur infinitely more risk of a shark attack than - say a motorist in Kansas at the same moment in time.

I don't think that's the case. The "likelyhood" should (is) based on the number of people exposed to that situation in that moment, i.e. number of people attacked by a shark / number of people in the ocean or

I think you're both saying more or less the same thing. At any rate, number of people hit by a car / number of people in traffic is a really small fraction. Likewise, number of people in developed Yellowstone campgrounds / number of people attacked is an extremely small fraction.

Grizzly risk can be higher in a few areas. Herrero calculated that in one Canadian park the risk of attack was 1 per 2000 human visits. That's actually huge, orders of magnitude higher than the risk of crossing the street just about anywhere. In most areas, though, if you are actually willing to take a few precautions (#1, make noise as you move through grizzly country), the worry about grizzlies shouldn't be that daunting compared to the other risks you take in the mountains. In 35 years of traveling in grizzly country, mostly alone, I haven't yet had a dangerous encounter. I've seen some bear butts getting out of my way, though. Of course, anyone can be really unlucky one day, and those folks at Soda Butte are in that category.

Every year, I hike and climb in grizzly country. Often, I go alone. I am aware of the risks, and I prepare for them the best I can. On the Fourth of July this year, I had a very close encounter with two grizzlies that I will never forget; it was a strange circumstance in which they were probably as surprised to see me as I was to see them, for they came running over a ridge just a few yards from me as I was following a game trail just under the crest of that ridge. It was totally out in the open and at least four miles from the nearest trail, two grizzlies against one human. But they just kept running right by me, turning slightly in my direction and barely taking the time to turn their heads my way. And then they were gone into the forest below; I could hear them crashing and grunting for a few seconds, and then nothing. Yet I did decide not to take that way on my descent even though it would have been shorter!

I had grabbed my spray and prepared to drop, but they were gone so quickly. It also made me think of what some law enforcement rangers told me was their main concern about the new right to carry guns in parks-- people firing and killing animals for bluff charges. At that proximity, how many people would have drawn and fired? I suspect a lot. Maybe I would have, too, and it would have been unnecessary.

I saw a third grizzly that day, right on my path but much farther off. After watching it a bit and hoping it would leave, I made a little noise from a safe distance so it would finally see me. It did, and then it ran. That's what happens the vast majority of the time when people and grizzlies meet each other-- the bears fear or ignore the people.

Grizzlies are a risk out in grizzly country. They are not the biggest risk. Usually, encounters can be avoided. Lightning is a bigger worry for me, as is getting badly injured out in such remote territory. And there are those who swear a mother moose around her calf is the most dangerous animal in the mountains, even more than the bears.

And reckless and dangerous people still worry more than grizzlies and other dangerous animals do.

It's sad when people are harmed and killed in unprovoked attacks. Most of the time, people provoke in some way, though there are rare cases of predation by bears, and this attack at the campground sounds as though it may be one. But this is a risk in grizzly country. If you don't want to accept the risk, do the right thing and go somewhere else. But don't go into the grizzlies' home and expect them to play by your rules, and that's what too many do.

Great story & post, Bob.

You mention some people swear moose are more dangerous--on personal experience, I might be in that school of thought, since my one animal-related injury was from a moose. But I had provoked the moose that went after me by trying to (gently) herd her out of my way. One good thing about bears is that they are so scary most of us don't push our luck with them the way we do with moose or bison or what have you.

Bob Sihler wrote:Every year, I hike and climb in grizzly country. Often, I go alone. I am aware of the risks, and I prepare for them the best I can. On the Fourth of July this year, I had a very close encounter with two grizzlies that I will never forget; it was a strange circumstance in which they were probably as surprised to see me as I was to see them, for they came running over a ridge just a few yards from me as I was following a game trail just under the crest of that ridge. It was totally out in the open and at least four miles from the nearest trail, two grizzlies against one human. But they just kept running right by me, turning slightly in my direction and barely taking the time to turn their heads my way. And then they were gone into the forest below; I could hear them crashing and grunting for a few seconds, and then nothing. Yet I did decide not to take that way on my descent even though it would have been shorter!

I had grabbed my spray and prepared to drop, but they were gone so quickly. It also made me think of what some law enforcement rangers told me was their main concern about the new right to carry guns in parks-- people firing and killing animals for bluff charges. At that proximity, how many people would have drawn and fired? I suspect a lot. Maybe I would have, too, and it would have been unnecessary.

I saw a third grizzly that day, right on my path but much farther off. After watching it a bit and hoping it would leave, I made a little noise from a safe distance so it would finally see me. It did, and then it ran. That's what happens the vast majority of the time when people and grizzlies meet each other-- the bears fear or ignore the people.

Grizzlies are a risk out in grizzly country. They are not the biggest risk. Usually, encounters can be avoided. Lightning is a bigger worry for me, as is getting badly injured out in such remote territory. And there are those who swear a mother moose around her calf is the most dangerous animal in the mountains, even more than the bears.

And reckless and dangerous people still worry more than grizzlies and other dangerous animals do.

It's sad when people are harmed and killed in unprovoked attacks. Most of the time, people provoke in some way, though there are rare cases of predation by bears, and this attack at the campground sounds as though it may be one. But this is a risk in grizzly country. If you don't want to accept the risk, do the right thing and go somewhere else. But don't go into the grizzlies' home and expect them to play by your rules, and that's what too many do.

Probably one of big problems with people firing because of bluff charges is that they have increased their chances of getting mauled by the bear - a wounded bear is apt to be a pissed off bear, and a pistol isn't really what you want if you are looking to kill a bear.

redneck wrote:
The last California grizzly was killed almost 100 years ago. I confess it's hard to feel really sorry about that.

Actually it died of old age in captivity in SF.

I'm going to chime in my unrelated know-it-all two sense here...

I think he meant the last wild grizz. It was indeed shot in 1930 something, in the Santa Ana Mountains of all places.

Either way I agree that grizzlies scare the shit outta me, but so should being out in the wilderness alone or for any extended period of time. It's all part of the experience, and a little fear is healthy.

redneck wrote:The last California grizzly was killed almost 100 years ago. I confess it's hard to feel really sorry about that.

your moniker fits you well!

Great story, Bob. Thanks for sharing.

Do you have any idea whether they were running to something or . . .

running away from something?

The thing that really grabs me about this story is the terror those people must have felt, being attacked in their tents at 2 AM, holy shit!!! I've camped in that campground and others in that area and I know I could not camp there again without thinking long and hard about this incident.

Statistics say you're more likely to get killed in a car wreck on the way to Yellowstone or even be struck by lightning when you're coming out of Soda Butte Campground outhouse, but the thought of being awoken by a grizzly pulling you out of your tent is a very powerful one.

I do not backpack in known grizzly country simply because I'd be scared shitless. Hell, I'm scared enough as it is dealing with black bears, rogue cowboys and whatever else is out there in the dark of the night. I choose not to add the grizz to the list of things I think about when I wake up at 2 AM in the pitch blackness of my tent. So be it.

I salute those that do and wish them well.

oh brother! The old it's more dangerous to drive your car debate again. I have driven my car over 10,000 times in my life, rode in one and additional 35,000 times. I have been in a car during 4 wrecks and sustained zero injuries. Yes, I have never been attacked by a bear, but in the event that I had experienced 45,000 bear encounters I could almost guarantee you I would not be alive by number 1,000. They are wild unpredictable animals and the only reason there are more car accidents and deaths in car accidents is because there are 500 times more cars in a 30 foot wide area than there are bears in a large forest. Being around bears is just not safe, regardless of how safe it is to drive. Run into them enough times and one will attack you. Have at least a handful of attacks and one of those will end in death. At least in my car I can be defensive and wear a seatbelt.

SCORE another one for the moose and bears !!!

gwave47 wrote:oh brother! The old it's more dangerous to drive your car debate again. I have driven my car over 10,000 times in my life, rode in one and additional 35,000 times. I have been in a car during 4 wrecks and sustained zero injuries. Yes, I have never been attacked by a bear, but in the event that I had experienced 45,000 bear encounters I could almost guarantee you I would not be alive by number 1,000. They are wild unpredictable animals and the only reason there are more car accidents and deaths in car accidents is because there are 500 times more cars in a 30 foot wide area than there are bears in a large forest. Being around bears is just not safe, regardless of how safe it is to drive. Run into them enough times and one will attack you. Have at least a handful of attacks and one of those will end in death. At least in my car I can be defensive and wear a seatbelt.

Very good and fair points but I think you are still safer in bear country than the city or your kitchen or bathroom.

redneck wrote:The last California grizzly was killed almost 100 years ago. I confess it's hard to feel really sorry about that.

The disappearance of any native species is incredibly sad. This kind of attitude is ignorant and why the back country is shrinking drastically by the year.

redneck wrote:This is why I will never hike or camp in grizzly country. They are simply too unpredictable.

Unfortunately... I don't have the money to get out of grizz country. So I hike/backpack/mountaineer with caution. A smart, experienced hiker knows how to stay safe from bears. At the very least (for those who oppose the carrying of guns) wear bells, make plenty of noise, and store your food far from where you sleep.

gwave47 wrote:Being around bears is just not safe, regardless of how safe it is to drive. Run into them enough times and one will attack you.

You should stick to theme parks, not national parks, then. SP needs a page for Space Mountain.

I believe the people at the Soda Butte campground took the proper precautions and were even in a large group. Look how it turned out for them. You can't completely avoid bears.