Unlike last year's predictable El Niño (I was impressed with the accuracy of local weather forecasters!), this year's La Niña is proving contrary to long and short term forecasting. Back in the summer, San Diego was under heavy fog, but climatologists were telling us to prepare for a hotter and dryer than normal September and October. NOT! It not only stayed unseasonably cool, we enjoyed well above average rainfall in October.

Here in Pine Valley, the first wave of the current system brought 1.5 inches with the second front just now moving in. Got to love the wet weather! If we can muster above average rainfall this season, it will be the first back to back wet years in the 12 preceding. Granted, that is a big IF. So far, so good!

peninsula wrote:Unlike last year's predictable El Niño (I was impressed with the accuracy of local weather forecasters!), this year's La Niña is proving contrary to long and short term forecasting. Back in the summer, San Diego was under heavy fog, but climatologists were telling us to prepare for a hotter and dryer than normal September and October. NOT! It not only stayed unseasonably cool, we enjoyed well above average rainfall in October.

Another perfect real time fact and why I do not nor will I agree with any of the "long term" models/forecasts that claim we are all gonna die if we don't...

This entire summer was a record setter along the entire West Coast from Alaska to Baja for sustained below normal temps (5 months straight) and not a peep in the media nor in any of the AGW propaganda mechanisms. Sustained below normal SST's were the cause. A factor not included the AGW theory that appears to be growing throughout the Northern Pacific as a whole. Some very recent data indications show that the Northern Atlantic may begin behaving in the same manner. If this in fact occurs, the AGW folks can kiss their entire BS game away as this will drop mean avg temps 1-2degs across the in less than five years and reduce both the NAO and AO and send them back into a negative phase for the next 25-30 years. Interestingly enough, Dick Lindzen spoke of this just last week at the Congressional Hearings where the now infamous and very questionable statement, "That is considered weather and weather is not climate." came from Dr. Heidi Cullen regarding Dr. Lindzen's testimony. Funny thing is that as soon as she made that statement, Dr. Lindzen's face and body actions which were very obvious on the left hand side of the screen, were indicative of this incredibly ignorant comment.

It is what it is and will continue to be... no matter what we think or do.

Ya'll are soooooooo funny.....getting so excited about a little snow, hahaha!

Rob wrote:Ya'll are soooooooo funny.....getting so excited about a little snow, hahaha!

It's 3-4 feet more than what you have there on the bare city concrete/asphalt in.... Granda Hills?????

The Chief wrote:

Rob wrote:Ya'll are soooooooo funny.....getting so excited about a little snow, hahaha!

It's 3-4 feet more than what you have there on the bare city concrete/asphalt in.... Granda Hills?????

Yeah, thank goodness for that. It would mess up our vegetable garden bigtime!

peninsula wrote:Unlike last year's predictable El Niño (I was impressed with the accuracy of local weather forecasters!), this year's La Niña is proving contrary to long and short term forecasting.

Wrong and wrong.
None of the coupled atmosphere-ocean models predicted the flip from El Nino to a very strong La Nina whatsoever last year. This was somewhat of a shocker in the AOGCM community, like, whoa! ENSO is NOT predictable in a skillful manner it is merely a probablistic phenomenon that we do not have the physical understanding to predict with skill. See Ramage 1983 or many of the Lorentz articles from the late 1960s. Sure, we are getting better as computer power increases and parameterizations improve. But you are living in a fantasy if you think we can say 2013 WILL BE an ENSO year with this given SOI and SSTs will be distributed in a,b,c,and d manners.
Last year was anomalously cold in the Great Basin, contrary to predictions of warm and moist which 'typically' occur during El Nino.
In what way is La Nina contrary to long and short term forecasting? Clearly the rapid phase change from El Nino to La Nina last summer invalidates the former part of the argument. It also highlights the outrageous global teleconnections and nonlinearity of our atmosphere-ocean-land Earth system. And short term? Well, just because the Rossby wave trough becomes more meridional (N-S'erly flow) and oriented towards our latitudes (the Sierra) does not mean the seasonal climate typically associated with La Nina for us is invalidated. Yes, northern hemisphere dynamics change, but on a longer timescale than governs synoptic scale events such as this one. A cold pool in the tropical Pacific changes the frequency events may occur (or may not, there are no rules in this game) not their potential to occur at all. Interseasonal climate and weather are tied together in complex manners.
Sorry if I sound like I am blasting you, but I can't stand to see misunderstanding about our beautiful planet being perpetuated.

The Chief wrote:Sustained below normal SST's were the cause.Interestingly enough, Dick Lindzen spoke of this just last week at the Congressional Hearings where the now infamous and very questionable statement, "That is considered weather and weather is not climate." came from Dr. Heidi Cullen regarding Dr. Lindzen's testimony. Funny thing is that as soon as she made that statement, Dr. Lindzen's face and body actions which were very obvious on the left hand side of the screen, were indicative of this incredibly ignorant comment.

It is what it is and will continue to be... no matter what we think or do.

Good post, Chief. Skepticism in a complex problem leads to better understanding of the problem. (Yes we should clean up our act for the sake of preserving beauty and health on Earth, and no I am not funded by oil. The National Science Foundation (NSF), actually).

The more you learn about the oceans and atmosphere to more beautiful the relationships become and more you realize you don't understand. Sorry to burst bubbles, but our global climate models (GCMs) are not as good as people (mainly non-atmospheric scientists) tell you they are. The REAL scientists are using GCMs to test sensitivity of the model to various perturbations in order to gain a better physical understanding of nonlinear coupled processes on Earth. Aerosols, for example. Read the IPCC report and learn something. Quiz: Where does the greatest uncertainty lie in our understanding?
Better understanding of systems is used to then improve the models. But they (GCMs) can't predict ENSO (see above). So why should we believe anything on longer scales? They put the jet in the wrong place (can't remember reference for these papers off top of my head sorry). Whoops, the main driver of local climate is now wrong in the model! We are seeing that SSTs are biased 5K high in eastern Pacific and especially along coast of California/Baja. Not resolving the upwelling...but wait, thats important in the thermohaline circulation and transfer of momentum and energy through the oceans! Oh yeah, and its pretty important for driving our west coast climate as well...

Anyways...
Lindzen is a MF'ing smart dude, I really like reading his work. He understands the complexity of the geophysical Earth system.

Soap box time!!!!!!
Yes, we are making changes to our planet. You are ignorant if you think otherwise. Sustainable use of resources and respect for the environment is a key tenet in my life philosophy. From a larger scale perspective it is vital to make choices which maximize the health of our land, air, and water resources while preserving a high quality of life for humanity and our animal and plant friends. Drive less, bike more. Still visit and pay respects to landscapes you love and do your best to contribute to their improving health. Don't trash the planet you love. But don't drink the kool-aid.

My garden is snowed in now too! Snow is melting in the gauge to get a liquid H20 measurement for the eastern Sierra foothills.

[size=150]

granjero wrote:

peninsula wrote:Unlike last year's predictable El Niño (I was impressed with the accuracy of local weather forecasters!), this year's La Niña is proving contrary to long and short term forecasting.

Wrong and wrong.
None of the coupled atmosphere-ocean models predicted the flip from El Nino to a very strong La Nina whatsoever last year. This was somewhat of a shocker in the AOGCM community, like, whoa! ENSO is NOT predictable in a skillful manner it is merely a probablistic phenomenon that we do not have the physical understanding to predict with skill. See Ramage 1983 or many of the Lorentz articles from the late 1960s. Sure, we are getting better as computer power increases and parameterizations improve. But you are living in a fantasy if you think we can say 2013 WILL BE an ENSO year with this given SOI and SSTs will be distributed in a,b,c,and d manners.
Last year was anomalously cold in the Great Basin, contrary to predictions of warm and moist which 'typically' occur during El Nino.
In what way is La Nina contrary to long and short term forecasting? Clearly the rapid phase change from El Nino to La Nina last summer invalidates the former part of the argument. It also highlights the outrageous global teleconnections and nonlinearity of our atmosphere-ocean-land Earth system. And short term? Well, just because the Rossby wave trough becomes more meridional (N-S'erly flow) and oriented towards our latitudes (the Sierra) does not mean the seasonal climate typically associated with La Nina for us is invalidated. Yes, northern hemisphere dynamics change, but on a longer timescale than governs synoptic scale events such as this one. A cold pool in the tropical Pacific changes the frequency events may occur (or may not, there are no rules in this game) not their potential to occur at all. Interseasonal climate and weather are tied together in complex manners.
Sorry if I sound like I am blasting you, but I can't stand to see misunderstanding about our beautiful planet being perpetuated.

I said nothing about predictions for the La Nina, but was referring to local forecasting in the San Diego region during last year's El Nino. The El Nino was recognized well before the rainy season, and typically the Southwest gets heavier than normal precipitation during El Nino years, and in Pine Valley, we did (not by much, 27 inches instead of the seasonal average of 25). When the storm systems came through the region last year, predictions for rainfall totals were in the ballpark. I can't speak for other locations, but in San Diego, historically, we get predictions for rain and we often get none yet alone "ballpark" accuracy.

Once the La Nina was recognized, we were getting local predictions for dryer and hotter conditions in Sept/Oct, and for overall less precipitation during the year's rainy season. Thus far, those predictions are WAY off, simple as that. A week ago, local forecasters saw this system approaching and figured we "might" get some rain, and now we are getting dumped on. The wet season is just beginning, so whether we have a dry year or not is yet to be known, but I like the wet part we are currently experiencing and I'll take all we can get. It has been far too dry for far too long in San Diego. We have not had back to back "normal" years regarding rainfall totals for over 12 years and it has had an impact on the region. The biggest visible impact is the oak tree blight. Whether an end to this drought will reverse the blight is unknown, but most everyone agrees the blight is drought driven.

These are simply local observations in the San Diego region, and as far as goes perpetuating anything, I really have no idea what you are talking about, granjero.

Rob wrote:

The Chief wrote:

Rob wrote:Ya'll are soooooooo funny.....getting so excited about a little snow, hahaha!

It's 3-4 feet more than what you have there on the bare city concrete/asphalt in.... Granda Hills?????

Yeah, thank goodness for that. It would mess up our vegetable garden bigtime!

That is why we have a ...... Greenhouse!

peninsula wrote:I really have no idea what you are talking about, granjero.

Like I said, I am not trying to blast you, just trying to help clarify the following concepts (no, they are not simple and many brilliant minds have spent lifetimes trying to figure them out):
The difference between weather and climate forecasting. Predictability at various time and space scales. The complex physical interactions between land, atmosphere, and oceans occurring on these various time and space scales. The application of probability and statistics into dynamical realities of weather and climate. Tricky stuff indeed!
As far as perpetuation of ideas, its really these concepts above that are not clearly understood by many outside of the small world of physical Earth science. A lot of this has to do with the fact that we still struggle with these ideas and how to teach them to non-physical Earth scientists.
Let me think on this more to try and give you a better explanation (I'll send you a PM).
More snow pictures please!!!

Great workout just getting to Minaret Summit yesterday:



CHP was escorting north/south bound between Tom's Place and Mammoth 'cuz of a little wind:

MooseTracks wrote:Great workout just getting to Minaret Summit yesterday:

YIKES! I'd say a great workout going just a few feet! That is some serious snow.

1000Pks wrote:Amazing! And there is no one to bc ski with me?

<crickets chirping>

1000Pks wrote:Amazing! And there is no one to bc ski with me?

I am not much of a clubber myself, but, I understand that there are some clubs that have outings where members get together for ski trips and stuff. I think the Sierra Club does that.

There may be a chapter in your area, you could join.

Good luck!