A dry fall sometimes gets followed by a wetter winter, so who knows.

As usual though, I'll believe it when I see it

Be careful what ya'll wish for.

With all the fire activity of the past two years down in So Cal, ya'll will beg & really plead that El Nino never came.

The Chief wrote:Be careful what ya'll wish for.

With all the fire activity of the past two years down in So Cal, ya'll will beg & really plead that El Nino never came.

No hills in my neck of the woods LOL

As I repeated many times, you live in the hills in Socal and you will slide or burn eventually. This year it might be both

The Chief wrote:Be careful what ya'll wish for.

With all the fire activity of the past two years down in So Cal, ya'll will beg & really plead that El Nino never came.

No worries. I've got some pretty good rain jackets and a sweet pair of gators.

Besides, what would wilderness be without a little "wild"? Heck, I've even been thinking about starting a new sport: Mud Surfing. Simply wait until the rains come, grab your nearest boogie board or surfboard (sans skeg), and try your luck at the nearest mudslide. There should be plenty of slopes to choose from, and depending on the severity of everything, we might even get some good "mud waves" coming through the flood channels.



Seriously, though, a wet winter would be a good thing for the reservoirs. And that's NO JOKE.

Gusto

not sure if we will get a wet winter. back in 2004/05(when we got 30+" of rain), the storms started in October, and kept going.

I suppose an average winter would feel like a wet winter at this point.

tiogap wrote:not sure if we will get a wet winter. back in 2004/05(when we got 30+" of rain), the storms started in October, and kept going.

2005/06 we didn't get a lick of snow till New Years Eve.

It didn't stop till the end of April and it was the record setter.... 678"!

wingding wrote:I suppose an average winter would feel like a wet winter at this point.

Once again...

All you SOCALer need to remember that you live in a dry desert environment. That is one of the primary reasons that the Spanish Settler's continued north up the coast. There wasn't any consistent water to be had south of Santa Barbara.

For the last few months, the various indices have been tracking at the low end of predictions, so they had, last month, downgraded the forecast to "moderate" for the coming winter. However, I think that the more recent measurements push it back up higher.

The definitive site for El Nino forecasts:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... sodisc.pdf

p.s: 2 month lead, 3 month precip forecast, as of Oct 15:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... 2_prcp.gif

MCGusto wrote:

The Chief wrote:Be careful what ya'll wish for.

With all the fire activity of the past two years down in So Cal, ya'll will beg & really plead that El Nino never came.

No worries. I've got some pretty good rain jackets and a sweet pair of gators.

Besides, what would wilderness be without a little "wild"? Heck, I've even been thinking about starting a new sport: Mud Surfing. Simply wait until the rains come, grab your nearest boogie board or surfboard (sans skeg), and try your luck at the nearest mudslide. There should be plenty of slopes to choose from, and depending on the severity of everything, we might even get some good "mud waves" coming through the flood channels.



Seriously, though, a wet winter would be a good thing for the reservoirs. And that's NO JOKE.

Gusto

You just triggered a memory with your mention of mud surfing. One winter in the 1970s there was a flood where I lived in the Santa Monica mountains. Me and my brother went out in it. We found the abandoned Pomegranate orchard we usually played in flooded in several feet of water. I remember swimming in rapidly-moving, aromatic, muddy water full of shrubs, sticks and other debris. We were excellent swimmers, accustomed to dealing with rough water in the ocean, but so many things could have gone wrong. I'm amazed we didn't drown.

I remember the 1998 El Nino when I lived in Santa Cruz. It was completely dry and fairly warm until New Year's Day of 1998. Then it rained for months without stopping.

wingding wrote:I suppose an average winter would feel like a wet winter at this point.

And how. All the tinajas on Bridge Mt are empty; that's not normal for this time of year. Vegas is at about 30-40% of the normal rainfall (which isn't much anyway).

jhodlof wrote:

MoapaPk wrote:

wingding wrote:I suppose an average winter would feel like a wet winter at this point.

And how. All the tinajas on Bridge Mt are empty; that's not normal for this time of year. Vegas is at about 30-40% of the normal rainfall (which isn't much anyway).

Yeah, I'm wondering when we will start to see some moisture in AZ. It was a really dry summer and its been a dry year. There is all this talk of an El Nino and water falling from the sky, but it has yet to happen. Funny thing, the NWS gets all excited about an El Nino, but they themselves state, in the Flagstaff discussion about El Ninos, that an El Nino has a 50/50 chance of being wetter or drier than normal. The last one was really dry, the one before that really wet. It makes no sense. Why get so excited about something which has a 50/50 chance?

We live in a desert environment and I think, if anything, it will only get drier unfortunately.

jhodlof wrote:There is all this talk of an El Nino and water falling from the sky, but it has yet to happen. Funny thing, the NWS gets all excited about an El Nino, but they themselves state, in the Flagstaff discussion about El Ninos, that an El Nino has a 50/50 chance of being wetter or drier than normal. The last one was really dry, the one before that really wet. It makes no sense. Why get so excited about something which has a 50/50 chance?

Got a link for that? I'm guessing it's because they set the mean to zero but hard to tell based on what you've said.

jhodlof wrote:

jrbouldin wrote:

jhodlof wrote:There is all this talk of an El Nino and water falling from the sky, but it has yet to happen. Funny thing, the NWS gets all excited about an El Nino, but they themselves state, in the Flagstaff discussion about El Ninos, that an El Nino has a 50/50 chance of being wetter or drier than normal. The last one was really dry, the one before that really wet. It makes no sense. Why get so excited about something which has a 50/50 chance?

Got a link for that? I'm guessing it's because they set the mean to zero but hard to tell based on what you've said.

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz/Weather_Gra ... layer.html


I guess you'd have to change precipitation to snow fall. I watched that a long time ago and had forgotten it. I want a wet winter, but I'll believe it when I see it.

Interesting note, this is the driest year to date in Flagstaff.
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz/News/Oct09review.pdf

see the bottom

Nope you've got it wrong. Listen to it again, carefully. Especially #s 10-15.